Forum for Competitiveness estimates growth between 2% and 2.3% in 2026 and a surplus

Portugal’s Forum for Competitiveness, led by economist Pedro Braz Teixeira, estimates that last year the economy grew slightly below the government’s forecast at between 1.5% and 1.9%

But for this year, it foresees a “generally favorable” situation leading to a more robust growth of between 2% and 3% with consumer spending continuing to support that growth.

The Forum also expects a jump in investment as well as the government being able to achieve a modest budget surplus.

Moreover, it estimates that the Portuguese economy could grow by as much as 2% to 2.3% in 2026 with the economy accelerating more than last year.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Forum for Competitiveness estimates that Portugal’s GDP will have grown by between 0.5% and 0.7% QoQ.

It’s a percentage that compares with growth of 0.8% in Q3 of 2025 driven by consumer spending.

In like-for-like terms, the estimated variation corresponds to an increase between 1.7% and 1.9% which means that Portugal’s economy slowed towards the end of the year. Even so, in Q3 of 2025 GDP grew 2.4%.

The slowdown in Portugal’s economy in the last quarter of 2025 can be explained, says the Forum, on competitiveness, particularly by the exceptional growth QoQ that was observed in Q4 of 2024 (1.2%) which meant that in comparative terms the growth rate for the period between October and December 2025 was less.

“The economic conditions for Portugal are generally favorable. GDP is close to its potential and should grow in line with it”, concludes the Forum.