Portugal’s trade surplus shrinks over tariff wars

Portugal continues to post a surplus from commercial services, particularly thanks to tourism, but with all the uncertainty over the current trade wars instigated by the US, that surplus has shrunk considerably in the first three quarters of this year.

To September, Portugal exported €102.4Bn of goods and services, an accumulated increase of 1.8% like-for-like on 2024 according to data released by the Bank of Portugal this week.

In terms of imports, Portugal imported 397.7Bn worth of goods and services, up 4.3% on the same period in 2024.

And although exports have once again exceeded imports, a growth in imports has narrowed the gap between imports and exports with imports gaining ground.

The accumulated surplus trade balance for the first nine months of the year was €4.8Bn, compared to €6.9Bn for the same period in 2024.

This means that Portugal’s positive balance of payments has effectively shrunk by 30.7%.

And this is partially explained by a deterioration in the balance of goods which has been running a deficit for decades.

Between January and September, the balance of goods deficit increased by €3.6Bn to a total of €21.6Bn.

According to the BoP, this deterioration reflects the increase in imports (+€3.2Bn) and a fall in exports (-€350 million) in goods.

During this period trade in goods was pressured by strong uncertainty around tariffs and the yo-yo policies of the United States President Donald Trump and the imposition of 20% tariffs on European Union products, including Portugal.