Portugal divided – Centre-right parties cast out in the cold in presidential elections

Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance party has been pushed out in the cold if Sunday’s presidential elections are a bellweather for a future general election with its candidate Luís Marques Mendes garnering a dismal 11.4% of the vote.

Portugal has basically become a two-party system again – the difference this time is instead of the traditional competition between the PSD Social Democratic Party and the PS Socialist Party, the mood of the nation has turned the political landscape into a two-party system dominated by the far-right conservative Chega party and the centre-left PS party.

What this election reveals is that Portugal is increasingly divided on social issues between the far right and the centre left. Those that want constitutional reform and policies focusing on anti-immigration policies, stricter criminal justice (like chemical castration for sex offenders), combating corruption, reducing state presence through privatisation, and defending traditional values, and targetting the Roma community and anti-establishment sentiment.

And those who want greater protection for workers, strong unions, economic stability, reforms for public services, slashing bureaucracy, attracting investment, reducing public debt, and a greater reliance on export-orientated companies.

Above all, it is clear sign that the image that public personalities project matters. Luís Marques Mendes, the candidate who represented the centre-right simply didn’t have the charisma and presence of what the public perceives are needed to be a president of the Portuguese Republic.

It was one of the closest contests in recent decades with the PS candidate António José Seguro winning in the first round with Chega’s André Ventura facing him in the runoff on February 8.

Above all, it shows that Portugal has joined the European trend to vote for far-right parties because significant voters in the European Union countries no longer have faith in traditional democratic parties.

With almost 98% of votes counted, André Ventura, leader of the Chega (Enough) party that he founded less than seven years ago, captured 24% of the vote and placed second behind Seguro who led with almost 31%.

It was the best result for a Socialist candidate since Jorge Sampaio in 2001, who at the time obtained 2,411,453 votes (55.76%).

Now, António José Seguro will have the unenviable task of trying with the leader of the opposition José Luís Carneiro of rebuilding the PS socialist party which in recent years has seen its position eroded by the right.

The PS-backed candidate promised to “honour the vote of confidence” given to him, reaffirming the independent nature of his candidacy: “I am free, I live without ties”.

In his speech late on Sunday night, he invited “all democrats, progressives and humanists” to join his candidacy and together “defeat extremism”.

The winning candidate in the first round also promised to be “the President of all Portuguese people”.

“I’m ready to be the President of the new times. It’s time to defeat fear and raise hope,” he said, adding that his victory in the second round is the “victory of Portugal, of freedom and democracy”.

André Ventura, who succeeded in snatching votes from both the traditional right and left, effectively banishing Portugal’s far-left parties to the dustbin of contemporary history.

The man who refers to his party as a conservative right party rather than a populist extreme right party, did particularly well in the Autonomous Region of Madeira which has always been traditionally socialist, capturing 33% of the vote.

Addressing his supporters on Sunday Ventura said he believed he was the alternative despite the “talk of the far right and manipulation of the polls#”.

“We’re going to lead the non-socialist space in Portugal. The right has fragmented like never before, but the Portuguese have given us the leadership of that right,” he said.

“We managed to defeat the candidate of the government and of Montenegrinism; the candidate who claimed to be liberal, but had been on the globalist agenda, woke, and against Portugal; and we campaigned without personal picardy, without offence,” he said.

The he said that the “right will only lose the elections with the selfishness of the PSD, the IL and others who call themselves the right-wing. Now wee’ll see what they are made of.”

One of the main policies that André Ventura (23.5%) campaigned on was what he termed as “excessive and uncontrolled immigration”. “Portugal is ours”, he said in response to hundreds of thousands of permanent immigrants arriving, especially in 2022-2023, leading to over 1.5 million foreign residents by late 2024/2025.

He has also targeted the Romani community in Portugal claiming they don’t pay their way, they live of social subsidies, and do not contribute towards Portugal’s social security and national health systems.

Estimates for the Romani (Gypsy) population in Portugal vary, with recent 2023 data from Statistics Portugal (INE) finding 47,500 people self-identifying as ethnically Gypsy, while other sources like the Council of Europe suggesting ranges from 40,000 to 70,000, reflecting the difficulty in precise counts due to ethnic data collection rules in Portugal.  Nevertheless, they are a clear minority.

The international press described the outcome of the presidential elections as a “surprise victory” against all the forecasts, noting Portugal’s shift to the right on the one hand and a disenchantment with traditional politics, but also a damning indictment on the centre-right parties on the other, largely because of a perceived assault on the social state in favour of strict budgetary housekeeping and an emphasis on reducing Portugal public spending and national debt.

The other surprise in recent days has been the waning enthusiasm for the retired Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo (12.4%) – one riding high in the polls, when it came down to it, the electorate didn’t want to chance a military establishment figure at the helm of the country who is perceived, rightly or wrongly as likely to focus on increased defence spending and Portugal’s external security to the detriment of social problems at home.

And revealing that business, the backbone of Portugal’s economy, seems of less importance than social issues in this election, the Liberal Initiative (IL) candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo while coming in fourth place with a reasonable 16%, was also pushed aside by Chega voters.

As for the far-left Bloco de Esquerda and Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), these failed to garner even 3% of the national vote, relegating them to a mere footnote in history and revealing that Portugal has moved on from the Carnation Revolution of 1974.